Strength of Schedule (so far)
by Match Day 5 on Nov 21, 2011 9:50 PM EST
Email
PrintThere was some discussion on another thread about ManCity's lead right now, how it compares to last year's leaders at this point and to what extent that lead is inflated a bit do to the quality of the teams they have played. I put together this table which compares everyone based on the average number of points earned by their opponents. Basically, who has had the easiest go so far and who has had the hardest.
via rookery9.aviary.com.s3.amazonaws.c
Once again, the Spurts screw it up by having their Everton match delayed but we will see that this result wouldn't dramatically alter the conclusions other than to push them further down the list.
TOP is Total Opposition Points and is derived by adding up the points earned as of today by all the opponents a team has played. I forgot what OR means. It was late last night when I started this but it should be clear that this column is just TOP divided by the number of games played. It is read like this: This season, on average, WBA played about a 16 point team each week. Swansea has played about a 17 point team each week. Etc. The e's and t's indicate who has played Everton and Tottenscum and thus could have a slightly tougher TOP depending on that result.
Obviously, ManCity jumps out. They are leading the league right now but, by this measure, only because their opponents have been shite this year. The ManU result does seem to indicate that City are legit (they are certainly beating the teams they are supposed to beat) but they still have a lot to prove. Everton have played the toughest schedule so far. Had they played 12 games they would be even higher (Spurt's points would drag Everton's OR up, Everton's would drag Spurt's down). Against tougher teams, Newcastle has lost to City and drawn us and Spurts while Chelsea has lost to us, Manchester United and Liverpool. It's early but these may be signs that these teams aren't up for it this year and may fall away.
Arsenal, ManU and Spurts (and, to be fair, Everton and Swansea) are the teams, it seems, who have done well with tough schedules. Considering the obstacles we've faced this year it could be argued that we are the most impressive of this group.
4 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I get the idea of OR though
Not sure what it means definitively in your mind, but it’s the total opposition points divided by games played, so kind of the average points of the opposition per game played. Either way, it’s good mathematics though, I praise you for that, because my math is constantly rubbish (says the man who runs the blog’s fantasy game by hand). I think though, it’s really hard nowadays to tell whether or not which teams are going to do well based on points and standings. Even though it’s clear as day which teams are doing poorly and which ones are clearly better than others, the performance factor of these teams is a lot more equal than what it seems like, compared to what it was back in the day. For example, while most of us picked QPR to get ravished by City just last week, they kept it close for the majority of the game, scoring two equalizers before giving up a third. Most of us pick United to win by 2 or 3 every weekend, but for the past three weekends, Chicharito has scored the only goals for them (aside from Wes Brown’s own goal), and United’s margin of victory has only been 1 against the likes of Swansea, Sunderland, and Everton. All one can really hope for though, is to play consistently well, and keep on winning and gaining points.
UMD Bulldogs: 2011 NCAA Hockey Nat'l Champions; 2009 & 2011 NCAA DII Football Nat'l Champions
"Terry's down, oh my! Van Persie all by himself now, around Cech, and that'll do it!"
Thanks for the thoughtful response.
I certainly wouldn’t argue that this tells the whole story but I do think using an average indicates general trends. And I did remember what my OR stat was, I just couldn’t remember why I choose that abbreviation. I think originally I was going to do a ratio between a team’s points and there opposition points but that’s kind of obvious. I managed to earn a math degree without taking any stats courses so I can easily confuse myself.
Captain, there are doubt''s...
And next comes a relatively easy bit of schedule
And at the end of it (or at least, not too far from the end of it) we get Sagna and Wilshire back, along with the more short term injuries to our fullbacks.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
